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Category: Mortgage News

Mortgage News analysis and perspective from National Mortgage News, an award-winning comprehensive digital resource serving the entire residential mortgage. Fidelity Home Group Mortgage News provides up to the minute mortgage and real estate news including mortgage rates.

Conventional Loans Take 76% Market Share, Highest Since 2008

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are running away with new home financing. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that conventional loans were behind 76.3 percent of all new home sales in the second quarter of the year. David Logan, writing in the NAHB Eye on Housing Blog, says this is the largest share those loans have held since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008. It was 5.1 percentage points higher than the conventional loan share in Q1 and 9.5 points more than in the second quarter of 2020. The growth in conventional lending was largely at the expensive of FHA. Those loans financed 12.1 percent of new home sales in Q2, down 6.7 points from the previous quarter and 8.3 points year-over-year. Logan said that the four-quarter moving average in the FHA share had been moving higher since Q3 2018, however, the second quarter data depressed that average by 1.1 point.

 

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MBS Day Ahead: 7 Charts to Help Make Sense of Paradoxical Jobs Report Reaction

Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 235k versus a median forecast of 728k.  Poll a hundred market strategists about the likely market impact and 99 of them would tell you a bond rally would be all but guaranteed and that stocks would be soaring on expectations of prolonged Fed accommodation.  While many of those strategists will be expending significant effort on making sense of this today, several key points have already emerged (with the truth likely being some combination of the following).  

Sector-Specific Drama

Today’s “miss” is concentrated in Retail Trade…

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MBS RECAP: Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP

Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP

The widest trading range of the week has been 4.5bps (Tuesday), but tomorrow’s jobs report could easily result in twice as much movement, or even three times as much.  Based on the relevant technical levels, that means bonds closed in the most neutral position possible (1.30% in 10yr yields leaves an equal amount of distance to the top and bottom of the 4-week range).  With that level already marking the…

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Mortgage Rates Barely Changed Ahead of Important Jobs Report

Mortgage rates are based primarily on bonds.  Bonds take cues from economic data (among other things).  And tomorrow’s big jobs report is the most consistently important piece of economic data each month as far as the bond market is concerned.  This logically means that there is an increased risk of volatility tomorrow.

Compounding the issue is the fact that the Fed is also paying careful attention to labor market data as they wait for evidence of enough progress to begin tapering their monthly bond purchases.  The Fed’s bond buying program is a key reason that rates are as low as they are.  Although the market is widely expecting a tapering announcement by the end of the year, the timing of the announcement would have a noticeable incremental effect on rates.

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Construction Spending: Residential is Only Game in Town

The U.S. Census Bureau says July’s expenditures on all types of construction was at a seasonally adjusted rate of $1.569 trillion compared to $1.563 trillion in June. This is an increase of 0.3 percent and 9.0 percent higher than expenditures in July 2020.

On a non-adjusted basis, total spending for the month was $144.046 billion, up from $141.545 billion the previous month. For the year-to-date (YTD), spending has totaled $883.208 billion, a 6.2 percent increase over spending in the first seven months of 2020.

With the exception of residential, spending in every construction category is down YTD. The biggest deficits are in spending on office construction and public safety. Both are just over 30 percent below their levels during the same period last year.

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HUD Unveils Multi-Agency Affordable Housing Plans

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has announced a series of actions aimed at assisting in the Biden Administrations goal of creating, preserving, and selling about 100,000 affordable houses over the next three years. HUD Secretary Marcia L. Fudge said, “These actions will expand access to critical capital for state Housing Finance Agencies, empower local communities to build more affordable housing using the historic investments contained in the American Rescue Plan, and advance equitable housing policies such as inclusionary zoning practices.” The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the following statement from its president and CEO Bob Broeksmit in support of the initiatives. “MBA strongly supports the administration’s efforts to increase the housing supply by encouraging the construction and rehabilitation of affordable apartments and homes for renters and first-time buyers.

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Just a Pre-NFP Place-Holder, But Lead-Offs Can Happen

Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report–much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates.  They’re typically fairly boring with movement that tends to be easily eclipsed by the NFP reaction in the following day, but occasionally we see these “place-holder” Thursdays turn into “lead-off” Thursdays. 

In other words, the bond market may have an underlying positional bias such that yields are 100% guaranteed to be at certain levels by Friday afternoon regardless of the NFP result, based solely on the trades that traders have already decided to make before the holiday weekend.  …

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Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher

Much like yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher, depending on the lender.  And once again, the differences in pricing strategies depend on timing in conjunction with yesterday’s pricing decisions.  

Lenders who reacted to yesterday afternoon’s bond market losses by raising rates were able to offer flat to slightly lower rates today.  Every other lender was either flat to slightly higher.

As is often the case, we’re talking about incredibly small movements in the bigger picture (because mortgage rates don’t reliably move enough to be worth measuring in day-over-day terms).  Prospective borrowers are likely to see the exact same rate quotes as yesterday.  The only differences would be modestly higher or lower upfront costs.

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration

Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration

Today’s ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit.  If there was one reason that bonds were able to move back into positive territory after overnight weakness, that was it.  The gains didn’t last long thanks to a combination of EU bond market weakness and general tradeflows at the NYSE open.  In fairness, the gains returned by the end of the day, but just barely.  The takeaway in the bigger picture…

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Freddie Mac’s Purchase Volumes Eroded in July

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 8.4 percent in July compared to a 12.9 percent gain in June.  The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $3.033 trillion compared to $3.021 trillion the prior month and $2.518 trillion a year earlier. Purchases and Issuances totaled $85.899 billion, and Sales were ($1.110) billion. The June numbers were $92.609 billion, and ($1.369) billion, respectively. Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $40.5 billion in July compared to $50.9 billion in June, representing a 50 percent share of total single-family mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances, down from 59 percent the previous month.

 

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