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Category: Mortgage News

Mortgage News analysis and perspective from National Mortgage News, an award-winning comprehensive digital resource serving the entire residential mortgage. Fidelity Home Group Mortgage News provides up to the minute mortgage and real estate news including mortgage rates.

Decline in Refis Pulls Mortgage Application Volume Lower

Mortgage application volume declined again last week, dragged down by flagging refinance activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, decreased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index was down by 3 percent.  The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 66.8 percent of total applications from 67.3 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 1 percent on the prior week but fell 2 percent on an unadjusted basis. It was 16 percent lower than the same week in 2020.  

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting the ADP vs NFP Correlation

The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government’s non-farm payroll number.  Assessing its efficacy was a tall order before covid and has been a relatively foolish endeavor since then.  So let’s get foolish (relatively)!  

Warning: the following charts are pretty hard to follow.  I haven’t conceived a better way to present the data post-covid, so the y-axis has been chopped off in most cases where huge covid-related numbers would have otherwise crushed the rest of the data series down to a flat line. 

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Mortgage Rates Drift Up From Recent Lows

Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, depending on the lender.  The differences in pricing strategies stem from the timing of changes in the bond market. 

Mortgage lenders set their rates based on the prices of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which change constantly throughout the day.  Despite those changes, there’s often enough stability for lenders to “set it and forget it.”  On days where MBS move more than normal, lenders can change their mortgage rate offerings in the middle of the day.

In today’s case, those changes were just getting to be too big to overlook right at the end of the trading day.  As such, only a handful of lenders opted to make any changes and even then, those changes were fairly small.

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MBS RECAP: Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears

Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears

Bonds improved after weaker economic data this morning.  Traders keyed in on internal components of the Chicago PMI report and concluded some labor market weakness could spill over to the week’s forthcoming employment reports.  But hawkishness from the European Central Bank pushed bonds back into weaker territory.  All of the above takes place inside the same sideways range that’s been intact for more than 3…

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MBS Day Ahead: Data Matters, But So Does Europe

Tuesday morning wasted no time in confirming the relevance of economic data to the current bond market environment.  When Chicago PMI came out weaker than expected (and with components that suggested a bleaker labor market picture on “jobs week”), bonds immediately responded with a decent little rally into positive territory.  Less than an hour later, we’re moving back into negative territory as European tapering concerns continue to mount.

European central bank decisions were already in focus in the overnight session.  They were the key culprit behind moderate weakness…

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Investor Share of Home Purchases in Decline

In a report released on Monday, CoreLogic recaps investor activity in the housing market over the last decade. Its Investor Homebuying Report highlights purchase trends nationally by both investor size and the price tier of property purchased between 2011 and 2020. The report says, at the beginning of this period, in 2011, the country “had recently reemerged from the 2006* housing market crash,” and foreclosed properties were flooding the market. Many investors were looking to buy potentially high growth residential properties at a discount during this period. That buying spree peaked in 2018 with a 16.8 percent investor share of sales. Then the pace of investment slowed. By the following year, the investment rate was 16.3 percent, falling to 15.5 percent in 2020.

 

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Home Prices Continue Runaway Gains, More Double-Digit Growth in June

Annual price gains remained at a double-digit pace in June. Both The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s) House Price Index (HPI) showed further acceleration in the rate of increase. The growth rate in most of the Case-Shiller indices approached 2 percentage points in a month.  Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 18.6 percent annual gain in June, compared to 16.8 percent appreciation in May. The 10-City Composite rose 18.5 percent, up from 16.6 percent the previous month and the 20-City Composite posted a 19.1 percent year-over-year gain, a 2 point gain from May’s rate. It was the 13th straight month of price acceleration. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle were again the top gainers among the 20 cities tracked in June. Phoenix led the way for the 25th month, this time with a 29.3 percent year-over-year increase, followed by San Diego and Seattle at 27.1 percent and 25.0 percent, respectively. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2021 versus the year ending May 2021.  

 

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What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About the Appraisal Gap

What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About Appraisal Gaps | Simplifying The Market

It’s economy 101 – when supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally rise. That’s what’s happening in today’s housing market. Home prices are appreciating at near-historic rates, and that’s creating some challenges when it comes to home appraisals.

In recent months, it’s become increasingly common for an appraisal to come in below the contract price on the house. Shawn Telford, Chief Appraiser for CoreLogic, explains it like this:

Recently, we observed buyers paying prices above listing price and higher than the market data available to appraisers can support. This difference is known as ‘the appraisal gap . . . .’”

Why does an appraisal gap happen?

Basically, with the heightened buyer demand, purchasers are often willing to pay over asking to secure the home of their dreams. If you’ve ever toured a house you’ve fallen in love with, you understand. Once you start to picture yourself and your furniture in the rooms, you want to do everything you can to land the property, including putting in a high offer to try to beat out other would-be buyers.

When the appraiser comes in, they look at things a bit more objectively. Their job is to assess the inherent value of the home, so they’re going to study the facts. Dustin Harris, Appraiser Coach, drives this point home:

It’s important for everyone to understand that the appraiser’s job in the end is to remain that unbiased third party, to truly tell the client what that home is worth in the current market, regardless of what decisions have been made on the price side of things.”

In simple terms, while homebuyers may be willing to pay more, appraisers are there to assess the market value of the home. Their goal is to make sure the lender isn’t loaning more money than the home is worth. It’s objective, rather than emotional.

In a highly competitive market like today’s, having a discrepancy between the two numbers isn’t unusual. Here’s a look at the increasing rate of appraisal gaps, according to data from  CoreLogic (see graph below):What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About the Appraisal Gap | Simplifying The Market

What does this mean for you?

Ultimately, knowledge is power. The best thing you can do is understand an appraisal gap may impact your transaction if you’re buying or selling. If you do encounter an appraisal below your contract price, know that in today’s sellers’ market, the most common approach is for the seller to ask the buyer to make up the difference in price. Buyers, be prepared to bring extra money to the table if you really want the home.

Above all else, lean on your real estate agent. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, your trusted advisor is your ally if you come up against an appraisal gap. We’ll help you understand your options and handle any additional negotiations that need to happen.

Bottom Line

In today’s real estate market, it’s important to stay informed on the latest trends. Let’s connect so you have an ally to help you navigate an appraisal gap to get the best possible outcome.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters Keeping Current Matters

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MBS RECAP: Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range

Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range

Bonds were at the top of their recent range last Friday, but buyers emerged after Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech.  The new week brought a gentle but obvious version of the same trade as both stocks and bonds improved at the NYSE open.  Ultimately, that only served to reinforce a sideways range as markets wait for this week’s data–especially Friday’s big jobs report.

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Mortgage Rates Fall Back to 3 week Lows

Mortgage rates drifted lower again today, with the average lender getting back down to the lowest levels since the first week of August.  In a general sense, today’s friendly rate momentum represented follow-through momentum after Fed Chair Powell soothed the market on Friday morning.

Both stocks and bonds improved as Powell said that he had been considering tapering the Fed’s asset purchase program this year, but the surge in covid cases due to the delta variant complicated the outlook.  The Fed’s asset purchases help rates stay lower than they otherwise might be and rates are expected to rise a bit when the Fed finally pulls the trigger on tapering.

All that having been said, the Fed’s decisions are ultimately dependent on economic data.  Specifically, the labor market needs to show that it can weather the various storm cycles of the pandemic.  To that end, there are several upcoming reports that can offer some clarity with this Friday’s jobs report being the most important.  In other words, even if the Fed doesn’t have anything new to say this week, an exceptionally strong jobs report could easily push rates back up. 

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