Category: Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates started the day modestly lower, but many lenders ended up offering mid-day improvements in response to market conditions.

When it comes to rates, the bond market sets the tone.  Bonds can move for a variety of reasons, but economic data is one of the quintessential inputs.  If the incoming data suggests a hotter economy or higher inflation, rates tend to rise.   The opposite is also true (weaker data = lower rates) as was the case today.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for the month of August today. 

Mortgage rates were fairly flat to start the new week.  This leaves the average lender in the high 2% range for top tier conventional 30yr fixed  scenarios (i.e. 20%+ equity, 740+ FICO, owner-occupied, single-family, detached homes).  This is just a bit higher than the all-time lows seen at the beginning of the year when rates were in the mid-2% range.

There’s disagreement about where we go from here.  The easy answer–and probably the more common one–is that rates will gradually move higher as we continue to distance ourselves from the worst days of the pandemic.  But that answer actually implies its own counterpoint: a lot depends on covid!  Specifically, if the delta-driven case count spike doesn’t quietly subside, and more importantly, if cases accelerate into the fall months, rates could remain in this all-time low territory.  Moreover, if covid ends up translating to new, measurable economic damage, rates could even re-challenge previous lows.

Rates are dictated by the bond market and bonds are flashing a warning sign about volatility on the horizon. In other words, rates look like they’re ready to make a bigger move in the near future, for better or worse.

This isn’t readily apparent at first glance–especially when it comes to mortgage rates (which are still very close to all-time lows).  Even when we look at a rate benchmark like 10yr Treasury yields, it seems that volatility has died down recently. 

But the absence of volatility is actually the problem.  Rates had been moving decisively higher early in the year as vaccines and fiscal stimulus fueled hopes of a quicker economic recovery.  More recently, political gridlock and the delta-driven surge in covid cases took 10yr yields back in the other direction.