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Category: Mortgage Rates

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Mortgage Rates Fall Back to 3 week Lows


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Mortgage rates drifted lower again today, with the average lender getting back down to the lowest levels since the first week of August.  In a general sense, today’s friendly rate momentum represented follow-through momentum after Fed Chair Powell soothed the market on Friday morning.

Both stocks and bonds improved as Powell said that he had been considering tapering the Fed’s asset purchase program this year, but the surge in covid cases due to the delta variant complicated the outlook.  The Fed’s asset purchases help rates stay lower than they otherwise might be and rates are expected to rise a bit when the Fed finally pulls the trigger on tapering.

All that having been said, the Fed’s decisions are ultimately dependent on economic data.  Specifically, the labor market needs to show that it can weather the various storm cycles of the pandemic.  To that end, there are several upcoming reports that can offer some clarity with this Friday’s jobs report being the most important.  In other words, even if the Fed doesn’t have anything new to say this week, an exceptionally strong jobs report could easily push rates back up. 

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GSEs Outline Available Hurricane Ida Relief


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Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) have told their borrowers and mortgage servicers that they are offering immediate relief options to those affected by Hurricane Ida. The assistance is available to homeowners financed by either GSE whose homes or places of employment located in presidentially-declared Major Disaster Areas. These are localities where federal individual-assistance programs are available to affected individuals and households. Those areas are currently on the Gulf Coast, but it appears likely there will be flooding along Ida’s path into other Southern and mid-Atlantic states. On Friday, while forecasts did not fully anticipate the storm’s ultimate strength, CoreLogic, which provides data to the insurance as well as the mortgage industry, sent out the following. “CoreLogic data indicates Hurricane Ida threatens 941,392 homes across Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi with over $220 billion in reconstruction cost value, based on the August 27 afternoon forecast’s cone of uncertainty. Louisiana alone has 800,349 homes at risk with a reconstruction cost value of $192.65B.

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MBS Week Ahead: Focus Shifting Back to Econ Data–Especially Friday’s NFP


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Last week’s theme was simple: sell bonds until hearing what Fed Chair Powell had to say in his Jackson Hole speech, then buy bonds when Powell simply reiterated his previous stance.  Some of that buying has carried over into the new week, but the broader sideways trend remains. 

Markets are now free to do what Powell told them to do: focus on the economic data for additional confirmation about “substantial further progress.  As far as the Fed is concerned, it’s really only the labor market that needs to improve in order to meet tapering goals.  This is an informative …

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Inventories Continue to Constrain Home Purchase Activity


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While existing home sales have increased in the last two months after a four-month slump, those sales don’t look especially bright as we head into the fall and winter doldrums. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says pending home sales dipped modestly in July, following a 1.9 percent dip in June. Its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a leading indicator of existing home sales, fell 1.8 percent from its June level to a reading of 110.7. It was the fifth time this measure, based on contracts to purchase single-family homes, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartment, has retreated in the last seven months. The index is now down 8.5 percent from the July 2020 level of 121.0.

 

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Portfolio/PLS Loans Push Forbearance Totals Higher


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The number of homeowners in forbearance plans rose over the most recent week. Black Knight says a 10,000 loan increase in the number of loans serviced for bank portfolios and private label securities (PLS) accounted for most of the growth. As of August 24, there were 1.76 million loans in active plans or 3.3 percent of all mortgage loans. This is 12,000 more plan participants than at the end of the prior week. In addition to the higher number of portfolio/PLS loans, the number of FHA/VA loans increased 3,000. The volume of GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) loans was reduced by 1,000.

 

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MBS RECAP: Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It


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Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It

Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech has come and gone without causing any major drama.  He held very close to his recent script which acknowledges the prospect of tapering in the near future while remaining dependent on just a bit more data and track record with the delta variant.  Bonds had positioned defensively ahead of the speech and are simply pricing out some (not all!) of that defensiveness heading into a big…

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MBS Day Ahead: Jackson Hole Day. Will it Matter?


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Much has been made of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium in 2021 and in a general sense throughout the years.  On some years, the anticipation has proven to be well justified.  Other years, not so much.  This time around, there is indeed an opportunity for the Fed share to shift the signaling about asset purchases in one direction or the other, but while a volatile outcome is exceedingly possible, it’s not necessarily guaranteed. 

In fact, even if there is an apparent reaction today, the economic data and covid numbers would still have to play along in the…

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Your Checklist To Get Ready To Sell [INFOGRAPHIC]

Your Checklist To Get Ready To Sell [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Your Checklist To Get Ready To Sell [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights

  • When it comes to selling your house, you want it to look its best inside and out.
  • It’s important to focus on tasks that can make it inviting, show it’s cared for, and boost your curb appeal for prospective buyers.
  • Let’s connect to make sure your house shows well and catches a buyer’s eye.
Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters Keeping Current Matters

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Leveling Off But Not Out of The Woods


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Bonds Leveling Off But Not Out of The Woods

Bonds began the day with a test of the important technical ceiling at 1.37% in 10yr yields.  With some help from geopolitical risk due to bombings in Kabul, bonds managed to stay fairly calm with the 10yr just a hair better than ‘unchanged’ at the 3pm CME close.  MBS also found their footing and were 2 ticks (0.06) higher at the same time. We’re not out of the woods yet though.  Tomorrow brings Fed Chair…

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Mortgage Rates Higher This Week, But Stabilized Today


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Mortgage rates stabilized today after moving higher at a moderately quick pace over the past 2 days.  To be sure, today’s rates are definitely higher than those seen at the end of last week, despite numerous headlines to the contrary. The headlines in question are based on Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey which is published on Thursday morning, but tends to capture week-over-week rate movement between Monday and the previous Monday.  That ended up being a very favorable comparison this time around.  The rising rates of the past 2 days conclusively changed the game.

Why are rates rising though?  Rates are dictated by the bond market.  As bond prices fall, yields rise, and higher yields coincide with higher rates (indeed, “yield” is simply market jargon for “rate”).  

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