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Category: Mortgage Rates

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MBS Day Ahead: Fun-Size Sell-Off Despite Weaker Data

The Retail Sales report is generally considered to be in the upper echelon of economic reports when it comes to bond market impact.  As such, it’s somewhat surprising to see bonds reacting negatively to a weaker-than-expected number.  But traders have their reasons.  These include a few bigger trades from bigger firms who were expecting an even weaker result in the data.  In turn, those trades provided leadership for more impressionable market participants.  They also helped yields crest the 1.25% technical level, thus resulting in some additional upward…

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What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean?

What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean? | Simplifying The Market

Whether or not you’ve been following the real estate industry lately, there’s a good chance you’ve heard we’re in a serious sellers’ market. But what does that really mean? And why are conditions today so good for people who want to list their house?

It starts with the number of houses available for sale. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Today, we have a 2.6-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. Historically, a 6-month supply is necessary for a ‘normal’ or ‘neutral’ market in which there are enough homes available for active buyers (see graph below):What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean? | Simplifying The MarketWhen the supply of houses for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which leads to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer. As this happens, home prices rise, and sellers are in the best position to negotiate deals that meet their ideal terms.

Right now, there are many buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. Low mortgage rates and the ongoing rise in remote work have prompted buyers to think differently about where they live – and they’re taking action. If you put your house on the market while supply is still low, it will likely get a lot of attention from competitive buyers.

Bottom Line

Today’s ultimate sellers’ market holds great opportunities for homeowners ready to make a move. Listing your house now will maximize your exposure to serious buyers who will actively compete against each other to purchase it. Let’s connect to discuss how to jumpstart the selling process.

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MBS RECAP: Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.

Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.

With a strong move last Friday, the bond market was able to end the week at slightly stronger levels than those seen at the end of the previous week.  This is more readily seen on the Treasury side of the market where yields were under 1.26% at the 3pm CME close versus roughly 1.30 on Friday afternoon.  MBS underperformed, ultimately returning to ‘unchanged’ levels in the 4pm hour even as Treasuries…

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MBS Week Ahead: Still Anyone’s Game as Covid Concerns Continue

Just when you thought rates were bouncing higher after hitting 6 month lows, the new week begins with bonds re-staking a claim to the recent, stronger range in July/Aug. 10yr yields are back in the 1.2’s, and MBS are at the best levels in more than a week.

Most everyone is tired of pandemic-related news, but it continues to be the key source of motivation for the economy and the bond market whether directly or indirectly.  The Fed’s rate-friendly policy stance is another manifestation of covid’s economic impacts.  And just when the Fed is finally getting close to dialing back…

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A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers

A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The Market

When you hear the phrase home price appreciation, what does it mean to you? Through context clues alone, chances are you know it has to do with rising home prices. And as a seller, you know rising home prices are good news for your potential sale. But let’s look past the dollar signs and dive deeper into the concept. To truly understand home price appreciation, you need to know how it works and why it matters to you.

Investopedia defines appreciation like this:

Appreciation, in general terms, is an increase in the value of an asset over time. The increase can occur for a number of reasons, including increased demand or weakening supply, or as a result of changes in inflation or interest rates. This is the opposite of depreciation, which is a decrease in value over time.” 

When we consider this definition and how it applies to real estate, a few words stick out: supply and demand. In today’s real estate market, we’re experiencing high buyer demand and very few sellers listing their homes for sale (see maps below):A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The MarketNo matter the industry, anytime there’s more demand than supply, prices naturally rise. It happens because buyers are willing to pay more to secure the scarce product or service they’re looking for. That’s exactly what’s happening in today’s real estate market. Buyers are competing with one another to purchase a home, leading to bidding wars that drive prices up. For sellers, the rising prices mean that opportunity is knocking.

According to Quicken Loans, the national average home price appreciation rate is between 3-5% in a typical year. Today, home prices are appreciating well beyond the norm thanks to high demand. Here are the latest expert projections on the rate of home price appreciation for this year (see chart below):A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The Market

Compared to the normal pace of 3-5% appreciation per year, the current average forecast of nearly 11.5% is significant.

For sellers, this means that with the current rise in prices, your house may be worth more than you realize. That price appreciation helps give your equity a boost. Equity is the difference between what you owe on the home and its market value based on factors like price appreciation. It works like this (see chart below):A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The MarketYou can use your built-up equity to power a move into your dream home, or you can put it toward life-changing goals like funding an education or opening a business.

But don’t wait. While price appreciation is strong now, those same experts say it’ll start to appreciate at a more normalized pace next year. If you list your house sooner rather than later, you’ll be in a better position to capitalize on the higher-than-average home price appreciation we’re seeing today.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling your house, there really is no time like the present. Let’s connect so you can get an expert market analysis of your home and its potential.

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Rates Recover After Bumpy Week; Realtors See Prices Moderating

Mortgage rates bounced at 6 month lows early last week and moved higher at a faster-than-normal pace through the middle of this week. They’ve been slow to recover, but Friday went a long way toward solidifying the short-term ceiling.

Economic data inspired the move on Friday with Consumer Sentiment falling to the lowest levels since 2011, just edging out the lows seen at the start of the pandemic. 

The University of Michigan, which has conducted the survey for decades, called out the “stunning loss of confidence” as being distorted by consumers’ emotional response to the resurgence of the pandemic, ultimately concluding “consumers will again voice more reasonable expectations” in the coming months.

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MBS RECAP: Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data

Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data

Snowball moves in markets, by their nature, tend to be unexpected.  Today’s was downright surprising, largely because the extent of the “miss” in Consumer Sentiment data was equally surprising.  This is not a report that typically accounts for this much movement.  Even in today’s case, it was only worth 3bps of improvement in 10yr yields.  But that 3bps was enough to prompt short-covering and…

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Forbearance Plans Drop Below 1.8M

The number of loans in forbearance dropped by 83,000 over the last week. This is on top of a 71,000 loan reduction during the first few days of August. Black Knight reminds that this type of change is typical at the beginning of each month as servicers conduct three month reviews of homeowners to determine if their forbearance plans will be extended. As of August 10, 1.74 million homeowners, 3.3 percent of those with a mortgage, remain in COVID-19 related plans, the first time the number has fallen below 1.8 million. The numbers improved for all loan types. There was a reduction of 43,000 (-7.8 percent) in loans serviced for bank portfolios and private label securities (PLS), leaving 3.9 percent of those loans in forbearance.  The number of GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) loans fell by 15,000 and FHA and VA loans by 25,000. This leaves 1.9 percent of GSE and 5.8 percent of FHA/VA loans in forbearance.

 

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Construction Material Costs are Setting New Records

Even though lumber prices have recently declined, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says builders are facing some of the fastest increases of other building material costs in history. The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows an 0.2 percent increase in the prices of goods used in residential construction (with the exception of food and energy costs) in July. Those costs had increased 3.0 percent in June. David Logan posted in NAHB’s Eye on Housing blog that the BLS index shows those building costs have declined only twice since December 2019 and have climbed by 19.4 percent over the past 12 months. As an aside, when food and energy are included, the index is up 22.3 percent year-over-year.

 

 

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Realtors See Home Prices Moderating Soon

All but one of the 183 metropolitan housing markets tracked by the National Realtors Association® (NAR) posted annual price increases in the second quarter of 2021. Twelve of those areas had appreciation that exceeded 30 percent. The median price of a single family home rose 22.9 percent to $357,900. This translates to an increase of $66,800. All four major regions had double-digit gains and for once the highest growth was not in the West. In the Northeast, where Pittsfield, Mass led with a 46.5 percent increase, the highest in the nation, prices were up 21.8 percent. It was followed by the South, up 21.0 percent; the West at 20.9 percent, and the Midwest with 17.1 percent appreciation. Home price gains and the accompanying housing wealth accumulation have been spectacular over the past year, but are unlikely to be repeated in 2022,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. But he added, “There are signs of more supply reaching the market and some tapering of demand. The housing market looks to move from ‘super-hot’ to ‘warm’ with markedly slower price gains.”

 

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