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Category: Mortgage Rates

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Investor Share of Home Purchases in Decline

In a report released on Monday, CoreLogic recaps investor activity in the housing market over the last decade. Its Investor Homebuying Report highlights purchase trends nationally by both investor size and the price tier of property purchased between 2011 and 2020. The report says, at the beginning of this period, in 2011, the country “had recently reemerged from the 2006* housing market crash,” and foreclosed properties were flooding the market. Many investors were looking to buy potentially high growth residential properties at a discount during this period. That buying spree peaked in 2018 with a 16.8 percent investor share of sales. Then the pace of investment slowed. By the following year, the investment rate was 16.3 percent, falling to 15.5 percent in 2020.

 

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Home Prices Continue Runaway Gains, More Double-Digit Growth in June

Annual price gains remained at a double-digit pace in June. Both The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s) House Price Index (HPI) showed further acceleration in the rate of increase. The growth rate in most of the Case-Shiller indices approached 2 percentage points in a month.  Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 18.6 percent annual gain in June, compared to 16.8 percent appreciation in May. The 10-City Composite rose 18.5 percent, up from 16.6 percent the previous month and the 20-City Composite posted a 19.1 percent year-over-year gain, a 2 point gain from May’s rate. It was the 13th straight month of price acceleration. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle were again the top gainers among the 20 cities tracked in June. Phoenix led the way for the 25th month, this time with a 29.3 percent year-over-year increase, followed by San Diego and Seattle at 27.1 percent and 25.0 percent, respectively. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2021 versus the year ending May 2021.  

 

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What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About the Appraisal Gap

What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About Appraisal Gaps | Simplifying The Market

It’s economy 101 – when supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally rise. That’s what’s happening in today’s housing market. Home prices are appreciating at near-historic rates, and that’s creating some challenges when it comes to home appraisals.

In recent months, it’s become increasingly common for an appraisal to come in below the contract price on the house. Shawn Telford, Chief Appraiser for CoreLogic, explains it like this:

Recently, we observed buyers paying prices above listing price and higher than the market data available to appraisers can support. This difference is known as ‘the appraisal gap . . . .’”

Why does an appraisal gap happen?

Basically, with the heightened buyer demand, purchasers are often willing to pay over asking to secure the home of their dreams. If you’ve ever toured a house you’ve fallen in love with, you understand. Once you start to picture yourself and your furniture in the rooms, you want to do everything you can to land the property, including putting in a high offer to try to beat out other would-be buyers.

When the appraiser comes in, they look at things a bit more objectively. Their job is to assess the inherent value of the home, so they’re going to study the facts. Dustin Harris, Appraiser Coach, drives this point home:

It’s important for everyone to understand that the appraiser’s job in the end is to remain that unbiased third party, to truly tell the client what that home is worth in the current market, regardless of what decisions have been made on the price side of things.”

In simple terms, while homebuyers may be willing to pay more, appraisers are there to assess the market value of the home. Their goal is to make sure the lender isn’t loaning more money than the home is worth. It’s objective, rather than emotional.

In a highly competitive market like today’s, having a discrepancy between the two numbers isn’t unusual. Here’s a look at the increasing rate of appraisal gaps, according to data from  CoreLogic (see graph below):What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About the Appraisal Gap | Simplifying The Market

What does this mean for you?

Ultimately, knowledge is power. The best thing you can do is understand an appraisal gap may impact your transaction if you’re buying or selling. If you do encounter an appraisal below your contract price, know that in today’s sellers’ market, the most common approach is for the seller to ask the buyer to make up the difference in price. Buyers, be prepared to bring extra money to the table if you really want the home.

Above all else, lean on your real estate agent. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, your trusted advisor is your ally if you come up against an appraisal gap. We’ll help you understand your options and handle any additional negotiations that need to happen.

Bottom Line

In today’s real estate market, it’s important to stay informed on the latest trends. Let’s connect so you have an ally to help you navigate an appraisal gap to get the best possible outcome.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters Keeping Current Matters

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MBS RECAP: Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range

Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range

Bonds were at the top of their recent range last Friday, but buyers emerged after Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech.  The new week brought a gentle but obvious version of the same trade as both stocks and bonds improved at the NYSE open.  Ultimately, that only served to reinforce a sideways range as markets wait for this week’s data–especially Friday’s big jobs report.

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Mortgage Rates Fall Back to 3 week Lows

Mortgage rates drifted lower again today, with the average lender getting back down to the lowest levels since the first week of August.  In a general sense, today’s friendly rate momentum represented follow-through momentum after Fed Chair Powell soothed the market on Friday morning.

Both stocks and bonds improved as Powell said that he had been considering tapering the Fed’s asset purchase program this year, but the surge in covid cases due to the delta variant complicated the outlook.  The Fed’s asset purchases help rates stay lower than they otherwise might be and rates are expected to rise a bit when the Fed finally pulls the trigger on tapering.

All that having been said, the Fed’s decisions are ultimately dependent on economic data.  Specifically, the labor market needs to show that it can weather the various storm cycles of the pandemic.  To that end, there are several upcoming reports that can offer some clarity with this Friday’s jobs report being the most important.  In other words, even if the Fed doesn’t have anything new to say this week, an exceptionally strong jobs report could easily push rates back up. 

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GSEs Outline Available Hurricane Ida Relief

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) have told their borrowers and mortgage servicers that they are offering immediate relief options to those affected by Hurricane Ida. The assistance is available to homeowners financed by either GSE whose homes or places of employment located in presidentially-declared Major Disaster Areas. These are localities where federal individual-assistance programs are available to affected individuals and households. Those areas are currently on the Gulf Coast, but it appears likely there will be flooding along Ida’s path into other Southern and mid-Atlantic states. On Friday, while forecasts did not fully anticipate the storm’s ultimate strength, CoreLogic, which provides data to the insurance as well as the mortgage industry, sent out the following. “CoreLogic data indicates Hurricane Ida threatens 941,392 homes across Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi with over $220 billion in reconstruction cost value, based on the August 27 afternoon forecast’s cone of uncertainty. Louisiana alone has 800,349 homes at risk with a reconstruction cost value of $192.65B.

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MBS Week Ahead: Focus Shifting Back to Econ Data–Especially Friday’s NFP

Last week’s theme was simple: sell bonds until hearing what Fed Chair Powell had to say in his Jackson Hole speech, then buy bonds when Powell simply reiterated his previous stance.  Some of that buying has carried over into the new week, but the broader sideways trend remains. 

Markets are now free to do what Powell told them to do: focus on the economic data for additional confirmation about “substantial further progress.  As far as the Fed is concerned, it’s really only the labor market that needs to improve in order to meet tapering goals.  This is an informative …

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Inventories Continue to Constrain Home Purchase Activity

While existing home sales have increased in the last two months after a four-month slump, those sales don’t look especially bright as we head into the fall and winter doldrums. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says pending home sales dipped modestly in July, following a 1.9 percent dip in June. Its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a leading indicator of existing home sales, fell 1.8 percent from its June level to a reading of 110.7. It was the fifth time this measure, based on contracts to purchase single-family homes, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartment, has retreated in the last seven months. The index is now down 8.5 percent from the July 2020 level of 121.0.

 

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Portfolio/PLS Loans Push Forbearance Totals Higher

The number of homeowners in forbearance plans rose over the most recent week. Black Knight says a 10,000 loan increase in the number of loans serviced for bank portfolios and private label securities (PLS) accounted for most of the growth. As of August 24, there were 1.76 million loans in active plans or 3.3 percent of all mortgage loans. This is 12,000 more plan participants than at the end of the prior week. In addition to the higher number of portfolio/PLS loans, the number of FHA/VA loans increased 3,000. The volume of GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) loans was reduced by 1,000.

 

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MBS RECAP: Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It

Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It

Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech has come and gone without causing any major drama.  He held very close to his recent script which acknowledges the prospect of tapering in the near future while remaining dependent on just a bit more data and track record with the delta variant.  Bonds had positioned defensively ahead of the speech and are simply pricing out some (not all!) of that defensiveness heading into a big…

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