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Tag: Interest Rates

Mortgage Rates are Much Higher This Week

After hitting 6-month lows early last week, mortgage rates bounced and have been moving higher ever since.  The increases were moderate at first, but the pace quickened after last Friday’s jobs report.  In general, strong economic data is bad for rates.  The jobs report is generally considered to be the most important piece of economic data for rates.  That’s especially true right now as the Fed tries to decide when it will slow the pace of its bond buying program.

The Fed isn’t the only consideration for rates though.  In fact, while the timing is a bit of a moving target, it’s really the underlying economy that stirs the Fed to action.  And as far as the economy is concerned, the state of the pandemic is probably the most important input, but there are others that rival it from time to time.

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Fidelity Home Group | Mortgage News | Mortgage Rates

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Rates at 3-Week Highs, More Volatility Ahead

Rates were excellent at the beginning of the week, but that began to change on Wednesday.  We were already well on our way to 3-week highs on Thursday, and Friday made it official.

Notably, these 3-week highs are still historically low.

Friday’s main source of drama was the strong jobs report from the Labor Department.  The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.4%, easily besting expectations of 5.7%.  This was accomplished despite a 0.1% increase in Americans who considered themselves part of the labor force (a statistic that is sometimes used to offset changes in the unemployment rate).  

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Fidelity Home Group | Mortgage News | Mortgage Rates

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Mortgage Rates are NO LONGER Lower Than Last Week’s

Mortgage rates moved up from 6-month lows yesterday and that trend continued today.  This time around, we didn’t have any obvious culprits on the economic calendar (econ data played a big role in yesterday’s rate spike).  Instead, the bond market drama played out at a more gradual pace throughout the morning. 

As bonds weaken, mortgage lenders are increasingly compelled to raise rates.  If they weaken enough, lenders can even change rates more than once a day.  This was the case for many lenders on Thursday, but in outright terms, we’re still at better levels than most of the past 6 months.  Apart from the first 3 days of the week, only 1 or 2 other days have been any better going all the way back to early February.

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Mortgage Rates Move Up From Long-Term Lows

Mortgage rates hit their best levels in 6 months yesterday, but moved higher today following a strong report on the services sector.  

The economy is one of the key inputs for interest rates.  As such, several of the most relevant economic reports have a longstanding history of causing day-to-day volatility.  Today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is one of a handful of the most important reports.  By coming out much stronger than expected, it suggested the economy was closer to a level that would prompt the Fed to make changes to rate-friendly policies.  Bonds reacted with lower prices and higher yields (aka “rates”). 

Of course we’re only talking about only one economic report.  A few short hours earlier, another important report, ADP Employment, missed by a longshot.  A few days ago, ISM’s own manufacturing index suggested the post-covid economic growth was leveling off.  

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Mortgage Rates Drift Down to New 6-Month Lows

Mortgage rates moved slightly lower again today–extending a steady string of improvements that began after last week’s Fed announcement.  The average lender is now able to quote conventional 30yr fixed rates that are at least as low as those seen in the middle of July.  In most cases, today’s offerings are slightly better.

The details can vary quite a bit depending on the scenario (purchase/refi, credit, downpayment, etc), but best-case scenarios have been back in the “high 2’s” for weeks.  In almost all cases, today’s rates are the lowest since the beginning of February.

What’s up with the refreshingly strong move back toward all-time lows?  

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Mortgage Rates Near Long-Term Lows Despite Taper Talk

“Taper talk” refers to comments, speeches, or official policy communications from the Federal Reserve (aka “the Fed”) that speak to the timing and nature of a reduction in the Fed’s bond buying activities.  Wow!  What a boring and potentially confusing sentence!  Let’s try again…

The Fed buys bonds–US Treasuries and mortgage backed bonds (which, in turn, serve as the foundation for mortgage rate pricing).  This helps rates move or remain low.  When markets think the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, rates are at risk of moving higher. 

The current bond buying efforts began as a response to the pandemic.  They helped stabilize the financial system and they provided “accommodation” (a boost to overall economic activity intended to support the Fed’s goals on inflation and job growth).  As the pandemic grew more manageable and especially as the economy has come back online, the Fed has increasingly discussed winding down (or “tapering”) the bond buying programs.  

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What Will The Fed Do To Mortgage Rates?

Wednesday afternoon brings one of the year’s 8 regularly scheduled policy updates from the Federal Reserve (aka, the Fed).  While there’s no question that Fed policies have significant impacts on all kinds of interest rates, the Fed doesn’t actually “set” mortgage rates.  The only limited exception would be for certain lines of credit that adjust based on the PRIME rate which, in turn, is based on the Fed Funds Rate (the thing the Fed actually DOES “set”).  Even if the Fed Funds Rate had a direct bearing on mortgage rates (it doesn’t), there’s no chance that they’ll announce a rate hike this week, let alone this year.

So why do we care about the Fed?  Why have we seen such big moves in mortgage rates after certain Fed announcements in the past? 

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Mortgage Rates In Best Territory Since February

This week’s mortgage rates are hard to compare to last week’s.  There are two simple reasons for this.  The first is the recent removal of the adverse market fee that artificially increased rates for refinance transactions starting late last summer.  The second is the general strength in the bond market compared to last week.  Mortgage rates are, after all, based on trading levels in the bond market with higher prices (or lower yields) coinciding with lower rates.  Bonds aren’t doing quite as well as they were doing on Monday, but because lenders didn’t rush to drop rates as much as the bond market allowed earlier in the week, they haven’t had to dial things back as much as bonds would suggest over the past 2 days.

Now today, bonds are improving once again, albeit only slightly.  Still, the fact that improvement is even on the menu when bonds are operating in their best range since February is impressive.  The average mortgage lender isn’t offering quite the same rates seen on Tuesday morning, but they’re close.  Moreover, apart from the past few days, we’d have to go back to February to see anything nearly as low.

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Mortgage Rates Substantially Lower This Week, But Under Some Pressure Today

There are two pieces of big news for mortgage rates over the past few business days.  The first arrived last week in the form of the removal of the adverse market fee that artificially increased rates for refinance transactions starting late last summer.  The second arrived yesterday in the form of an impressive improvement in the bond market (bonds are the primary source of motivation for mortgage rates).  This friendly double whammy pushed the average lender easily into the lowest rate range since early February with conventional refinance quotes once again coming in under 3.0% in best-case scenarios.

It remains to be seen how long we’ll be able to enjoy these rates.  Today’s bond market volatility offered a warning.  The first few hours of trading were actually stellar, with bonds improving to significantly better levels than yesterday.  This was actually partly responsible for this morning’s rates being even lower than yesterday’s.  Then, in less than 2 hours, all of those gains were gone, and mortgage lenders were issuing negative reprices early this afternoon.  Granted, rates are still stellar, even after those mid-day price changes, but the intraday volatility is a reminder that rates can move in two directions.

 

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