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Tag: #homebuyerexperts

Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022?

Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Simplifying The Market

One of the major story lines over the last year is how well the residential real estate market performed. One key metric in the spotlight is home price appreciation. According to the latest indices, home prices are skyrocketing this year.

Here are the latest percentages showing the year-over-year increase in home price appreciation:

The dramatic increases are seen at every price point and in all regions of the country.

Increases Are Across Every Price Point

According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, each price range is seeing at least a 19% increase year-over-year:Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Simplifying The Market

Increases Are Across Every Region in the Country

Every region in the country is experiencing at least a 14.9% increase in home price appreciation, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA):Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Simplifying The Market

Increases Are Across Each of the Top 20 Metros in the Country

According to the U.S. National Home Price Index from S&P Case-Shiller, every major metro is seeing at least a 13.3% growth in prices (see graph below):

Home Price Appreciation Is Skyrocketing in 2021. What About 2022? | Simplifying The Market

What About Price Appreciation in 2022?

Prices are the result of the balance between supply and demand. The demand for single-family homes has been strong over the last 18 months. The supply of houses available for sale was near historic lows. However, there’s some good news on the supply side. Realtor.com reports:

“432,000 new listings hit the national housing market in August, an increase of 18,000 over last year.”

There will, however, still be a shortage of supply compared to demand in 2022. CoreLogic reveals:

“Given the widespread demand and considering the number of standalone homes built during the past decade, the single-family market is estimated to be undersupplied by 4.35 million units by 2022.”

Yet, most forecasts call for home price appreciation to moderate in 2022. The Home Price Expectation Survey, a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, calls for a 5.12% appreciation level next year. Here are the 2022 home appreciation forecasts from the four other major entities:

  1. The National Association of Realtors (NAR): 4.4%
  2. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): 8.4%
  3. Fannie Mae: 5.1%
  4. Freddie Mac: 5.3%

Price appreciation is expected to slow in 2022 when compared to the record highs of 2021. However, it is still expected to be greater than the annual average of 4.1% over the last 25 years.

Bottom Line

If you owned a home over the past year, you’ve seen your household wealth grow substantially, and you’ll see another nice boost in 2022. If you’re thinking of buying, consider buying now as prices are forecast to continue increasing through at least next year.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters Fidelity Home Group | Home Buyer Experts | Mortgage Rates

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Mortgage Rates Lower Today, But Volatility Remains a Risk

Mortgage rates moved lower today after starting the week by jumping noticeably higher yesterday.  Today’s gains came courtesy of global growth concerns early in the trading session and a strong 10yr Treasury auction during domestic market hours.  This morning’s mortgage rates weren’t too much better than yesterday’s, but several lenders offered mid-day improvements after the Treasury auction.  Lenders who held firm would likely improve tomorrow morning unless overnight market drama undoes today’s gains.

Why do Treasury auctions matter to mortgage rates?  Treasuries and MBS (mortgage-backed securities–the bonds that most directly affect mortgage rates) are both part of the bond market.  They correlate quite well for a variety of reasons (not the least of which being that Treasuries are the risk-free starting point against which every dollar-denominated bond investment is measured).  As such, when Treasuries have a good day, MBS (and thus, mortgage rates) tend to have at least a decent day.  Today was no exception.

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MBS RECAP: 10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?

10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?

Today’s 10yr auction was exceptionally strong.  In fact, by the time we consider the fairly epic levels of corporate bond issuance and the looming ECB announcement, the auction was actually stronger than the already-strong stats suggested.  Actual trading levels did a good job of splitting the difference with yields most of the way back to last week’s range.  The best that can be said about all of …

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Volumes, Rates Changed Little Heading into Long Weekend

Applications for mortgage financing declined again during the week ended September 3. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, was down 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis heading into the Labor Day weekend and was 3 percent lower on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 4 percent below the volume one year ago. Applications for refinancing represented 66.8 percent of the total, unchanged from the week before. Purchase mortgage volume declined slightly with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 0.2 percent. The unadjusted version was 3 percent lower week-over-week and down 18 percent compared to the same week in 2020.  

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Stronger Start, But Risk Remains With 10yr Auction and Corporate Bonds

Yesterday marked the weakest weekly opener in several months as bonds built on negative momentum following last week’s jobs report and positioned themselves defensively ahead of this week’s Treasury auction cycle.  A strong 3yr auction had essentially no effect on any portion of the yield curve, but today’s 10yr auction could be a different story.  Yields are several bps lower to start the day.  This raises the risk of a bigger negative reaction if the auction is weak (unless bonds undergo a concessionary sell-off in the hours leading up to the 1pm ET auction results).

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MBS RECAP: 3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness

3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness

Bonds have been consolidating in roughly a 17bp range centered on 10yr yields of 1.30%.  During this consolidation phase, yields have hit the ceiling (1.37+) 3 distinct times.  Each of those bounces corresponds with a Treasury auction cycle.  2 of the 3 examples include follow-through momentum from a poorly received jobs report (with this week being one of the 2).  There’s no way to know if the …

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Mortgage Rates Begin The Week Slightly Higher

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher to begin the holiday-shortened week.  With Labor day being a bank holiday, mortgage lenders were closed yesterday despite much of the world remaining open.  Futures and overseas markets thus had some extra time to distance themselves from Friday’s latest levels.  In today’s case, that distance was in an unfriendly direction for rates.

The damage is minimal in the bigger picture.  On average, lenders are quoting the same rates seen last week, but with slightly higher closing costs today.  Most of the weakness in the underlying bond market is centered on US Treasuries as opposed to the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that serve as the foundation for mortgage rates.  The Treasury-specific weakness is likely due to the presence of several big Treasury auctions this week in addition to heavy corporate bond issuance (which tends to hurt Treasuries more than MBS).

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Home Buying Sentiment Improves Slightly

Consumers felt a little better about the wisdom of buying a home last month than they did in July, although that isn’t saying a lot. Fannie Mae says 32 percent of respondents to its August National Housing Survey (NHS) said it was a good time to buy, up from 28 percent in July. Those who said it was a bad time declined by 3 percentage points to 63 percent, leaving net positive responses at a negative 31 percent, 7 points higher than the prior month but down by 55 points year-over-year.

Seventy-three percent of those surveyed said it was a good time to sell, but this was down from 75 percent in July and marked the second monthly decline. Net positive responses declined to 54 percent, down 1 point from July and 8 points compared to June.

The six questions from the NHS that are used to construct the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) split evenly between gainers and losers last month and the Index remained flat at 75.7, a 1 point dip from July, and 1.8 points lower than in August 2020.

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CoreLogic: Home Price Gains Expected to Slow to 2.7% by Next Year

Americans are continuing the trend started at the beginning of the pandemic 19 months ago, seeking larger homes in areas with lower density and prices continue to skyrocket for unattached dwellings in those areas. That’s not to say that price gains are moderating in other areas as demand outstrips supply. The company’s Home Price Index (HPI) set another record in July. Over the 12 months ended in July, the HPI increased 18 percent. the largest annual growth in the U.S. index since the series began with the year ended in January 1977 and was 0.8 percentage point higher than in June. The July appreciation of detached properties (19.7 percent) was again the highest measured in the history of the index and was nearly double the 11.6 percent increase in attached properties.

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Short Week Begins With Bonds Testing Boundaries

After being closed for Labor Day yesterday, the bond market is noticeably weaker to start the new week.  In the overnight session alone, yields rose enough to being 10yr yields up to an important technical ceiling at 1.375.  This matches the intraday high from 2 weeks ago and is just under the 1.379 high from 4 weeks ago. 

20210907 open1.png

Incidentally all 3 visits to this ceiling have occurred on Treasury auction days.  To whatever extent “supply” concerns are behind the weakness, extra pressure is being added this morning from corporate bond issuance.  If bonds follow their…

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