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Mortgage Rates Lower Today, But Volatility Remains a Risk

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Mortgage rates moved lower today after starting the week by jumping noticeably higher yesterday. Today’s gains came courtesy of global growth concerns early in the trading session and a strong 10yr Treasury auction during domestic market hours. This morning’s mortgage rates weren’t too much better than yesterday’s, but several lenders offered mid-day improvements after the Treasury auction. Lenders who held firm would likely improve tomorrow morning unless overnight market drama undoes today’s gains.

Why do Treasury auctions matter to mortgage rates? Treasuries and MBS (mortgage-backed securities–the bonds that most directly affect mortgage rates) are both part of the bond market. They correlate quite well for a variety of reasons (not the least of which being that Treasuries are the risk-free starting point against which every dollar-denominated bond investment is measured). As such, when Treasuries have a good day, MBS (and thus, mortgage rates) tend to have at least a decent day. Today was no exception.

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MBS RECAP: 10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?

10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?

Today’s 10yr auction was exceptionally strong. In fact, by the time we consider the fairly epic levels of corporate bond issuance and the looming ECB announcement, the auction was actually stronger than the already-strong stats suggested. Actual trading levels did a good job of splitting the difference with yields most of the way back to last week’s range. The best that can be said about all of …

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Volumes, Rates Changed Little Heading into Long Weekend

Applications for mortgage financing declined again during the week ended September 3. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, was down 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis heading into the Labor Day weekend and was 3 percent lower on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 4 percent below the volume one year ago. Applications for refinancing represented 66.8 percent of the total, unchanged from the week before. Purchase mortgage volume declined slightly with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 0.2 percent. The unadjusted version was 3 percent lower week-over-week and down 18 percent compared to the same week in 2020.

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MBS Day Ahead: Stronger Start, But Risk Remains With 10yr Auction and Corporate Bonds

Yesterday marked the weakest weekly opener in several months as bonds built on negative momentum following last week’s jobs report and positioned themselves defensively ahead of this week’s Treasury auction cycle. A strong 3yr auction had essentially no effect on any portion of the yield curve, but today’s 10yr auction could be a different story. Yields are several bps lower to start the day. This raises the risk of a bigger negative reaction if the auction is weak (unless bonds undergo a concessionary sell-off in the hours leading up to the 1pm ET auction results).

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MBS RECAP: 3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness

3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness

Bonds have been consolidating in roughly a 17bp range centered on 10yr yields of 1.30%. During this consolidation phase, yields have hit the ceiling (1.37+) 3 distinct times. Each of those bounces corresponds with a Treasury auction cycle. 2 of the 3 examples include follow-through momentum from a poorly received jobs report (with this week being one of the 2). There’s no way to know if the …

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Mortgage Rates Begin The Week Slightly Higher

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher to begin the holiday-shortened week. With Labor day being a bank holiday, mortgage lenders were closed yesterday despite much of the world remaining open. Futures and overseas markets thus had some extra time to distance themselves from Friday’s latest levels. In today’s case, that distance was in an unfriendly direction for rates.

The damage is minimal in the bigger picture. On average, lenders are quoting the same rates seen last week, but with slightly higher closing costs today. Most of the weakness in the underlying bond market is centered on US Treasuries as opposed to the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that serve as the foundation for mortgage rates. The Treasury-specific weakness is likely due to the presence of several big Treasury auctions this week in addition to heavy corporate bond issuance (which tends to hurt Treasuries more than MBS).

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Home Buying Sentiment Improves Slightly

Consumers felt a little better about the wisdom of buying a home last month than they did in July, although that isn’t saying a lot. Fannie Mae says 32 percent of respondents to its August National Housing Survey (NHS) said it was a good time to buy, up from 28 percent in July. Those who said it was a bad time declined by 3 percentage points to 63 percent, leaving net positive responses at a negative 31 percent, 7 points higher than the prior month but down by 55 points year-over-year.

Seventy-three percent of those surveyed said it was a good time to sell, but this was down from 75 percent in July and marked the second monthly decline. Net positive responses declined to 54 percent, down 1 point from July and 8 points compared to June.

The six questions from the NHS that are used to construct the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) split evenly between gainers and losers last month and the Index remained flat at 75.7, a 1 point dip from July, and 1.8 points lower than in August 2020.

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CoreLogic: Home Price Gains Expected to Slow to 2.7% by Next Year

Americans are continuing the trend started at the beginning of the pandemic 19 months ago, seeking larger homes in areas with lower density and prices continue to skyrocket for unattached dwellings in those areas. That’s not to say that price gains are moderating in other areas as demand outstrips supply. The company’s Home Price Index (HPI) set another record in July. Over the 12 months ended in July, the HPI increased 18 percent. the largest annual growth in the U.S. index since the series began with the year ended in January 1977 and was 0.8 percentage point higher than in June. The July appreciation of detached properties (19.7 percent) was again the highest measured in the history of the index and was nearly double the 11.6 percent increase in attached properties.

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MBS Day Ahead: Short Week Begins With Bonds Testing Boundaries

After being closed for Labor Day yesterday, the bond market is noticeably weaker to start the new week. In the overnight session alone, yields rose enough to being 10yr yields up to an important technical ceiling at 1.375. This matches the intraday high from 2 weeks ago and is just under the 1.379 high from 4 weeks ago.

Incidentally all 3 visits to this ceiling have occurred on Treasury auction days. To whatever extent “supply” concerns are behind the weakness, extra pressure is being added this morning from corporate bond issuance. If bonds follow their…

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Reasons You Should Consider Selling This Fall

Written by Fidelity Home Group Syndicated User on September 7, 2021. Posted in Baby Boomers, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Move-Up Home Buyers, Real Estate Updates.

If you’re trying to decide when to sell your house, there may not be a better time to list than right now. The ultimate sellers’ market we’re in today won’t last forever. If you’re thinking of making a move, here are four reasons to put your house up for sale sooner rather than later.

1. Your House Will Likely Sell Quickly

According to the Realtors Confidence Index released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes continue to sell quickly – on average, they’re selling in just 17 days. As a seller, that’s great news for you.

Average days on market is a strong indicator of buyer demand. And if homes are selling quickly, buyers have to be more decisive and act fast to submit their offer before other buyers swoop in.

2. Buyers Are Willing To Compete for Your House

In addition to selling quickly, homes are receiving multiple offers. That same survey shows sellers are seeing an average of 4.5 offers, and they’re competitive ones. The graph below shows how the average number of offers right now compares to previous years:Buyers today know bidding wars are a likely outcome, and they’re coming prepared with their best offer in hand. Receiving several offers on your house means you can select the one that makes the most sense for your situation and financial well-being.

3. When Supply Is Low, Your House Is in the Spotlight

One of the most significant challenges for motivated buyers is the current inventory of homes for sale. Though it’s improving, it remains at near-record lows. The chart below shows how today’s low inventory stacks up against recent years. The lighter the blue is in the chart, the lower the housing supply.
If you’re looking to take advantage of buyer demand and get the most attention for your house, selling now before more listings come to the market might be your best option.

4. If You’re Thinking of Moving Up, Now May Be the Time

If your current home no longer meets your needs, it may be the perfect time to make a move. Today, homeowners are gaining a significant amount of wealth through growing equity. You can leverage that equity, plus current low mortgage rates, to power your move now. But these near-historic low rates won’t last forever.

Experts forecast interest rates will rise. In their forecast, Freddie Mac says:

“While we forecast rates to increase gradually later in the year, we don’t expect to see a rapid increase. At the end of the year, we forecast 30-year rates will be around 3.4%, rising to 3.8% by the fourth quarter of 2022.”

When rates rise, even modestly, it’ll impact your monthly payment and by extension your purchasing power.

Bottom Line

Don’t delay. The combination of housing supply challenges, low mortgage rates, and extremely motivated buyers gives sellers a unique opportunity this season. If you’re thinking about making a move, let’s chat about why it makes sense to list your house now.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters Fidelity Home Group | Home Buyer Experts | Mortgage Rates

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Mortgage Rates Lower Today, But Volatility Remains a Risk

MBS RECAP: 10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?

Volumes, Rates Changed Little Heading into Long Weekend

MBS Day Ahead: Stronger Start, But Risk Remains With 10yr Auction and Corporate Bonds

MBS RECAP: 3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness

Mortgage Rates Begin The Week Slightly Higher

Home Buying Sentiment Improves Slightly

CoreLogic: Home Price Gains Expected to Slow to 2.7% by Next Year

MBS Day Ahead: Short Week Begins With Bonds Testing Boundaries

Reasons You Should Consider Selling This Fall

1. Your House Will Likely Sell Quickly

2. Buyers Are Willing To Compete for Your House

3. When Supply Is Low, Your House Is in the Spotlight

4. If You’re Thinking of Moving Up, Now May Be the Time

Bottom Line

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