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Category: Mortgage News

Mortgage News analysis and perspective from National Mortgage News, an award-winning comprehensive digital resource serving the entire residential mortgage. Fidelity Home Group Mortgage News provides up to the minute mortgage and real estate news including mortgage rates.

MBS RECAP: What’s Up With MBS Underperformance Today?

What’s Up With MBS Underperformance Today?

As long as we’re not dealing with big, obvious, unique market realities (i.e. financial crisis, QE3, Covid and the aftermath), MBS do a pretty great job of moving the same direction as US Treasuries and by roughly the same amount.  Today was not one of those days, at least if we’re looking for 10yr yields to set the tone.  Our first clue is seen in the 5yr sector, where Treasuries are negative on the day.  In…

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Mixed Messages in New Home Purchase Application Data

Mortgage applications for the purchase of newly built homes fell sharply in July, but the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said it expects new home sales for the month will remain strong. MBA’s Builder Application Survey (BAS) recorded a 27.4 percent decline in applications compared to July 2020 data. Applications were down 4 percent from June 2021. The numbers are not seasonally adjusted.

Based on the survey data and other assumptions, MBA estimates that new single-family home sales during the month were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 779,000 units. This is an increase of 10.7 percent from the previous month’s annual rate of 704,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, there were an estimated 64,000 home sold during the month, down from 66,000 in June.

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Mortgage Rates Struggle to Stay at Recent Lows

Mortgage rates experienced an uptick in volatility last week as the broader bond market was hit with a big dose of new supply.  In other words, between a set of scheduled Treasury auctions and a surge in corporate bond issuance, there were lots of new bonds looking for buyers.  More supply means bonds have to offer higher yields (aka “rates”) in order to attract buyers.  Mortgage rates moved higher as a result, but only in the first half of the week.

Once the market worked through the supply, renewed covid fears and geopolitical risks combined to tip the scales back in favor of bond buyers (investors often seek out bonds as a safe haven amid uncertainty and/or economic weakness).  More buyers mean lower rates, all other things being equal.  The good times kept rolling up until Monday morning.  The bond market has leveled off since then, but is doing a fairly good job holding in this lower range.

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Builder Confidence Falls to 13 Month Low

Fears about construction costs, supply shortages, and concern over fast rising home prices acted to deflate builder confidence this month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), a measure of its new home builders’ sentiment about the market for newly constructed homes, fell 5 points this month to 75, the lowest it has been since June 2020. “While the demographics and interest for home buying remain solid, higher costs and material access issues have resulted in lower levels of home building and even put a hold on some ‘new home sales,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While these supply-side limitations are holding back the market, our expectation is that production bottlenecks should ease over the coming months and the market should return to more normal conditions.

 

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Rent Gains are Setting Records Too

While home prices have been posting record increases for months, it appears that rents are trying to keep up. CoreLogic says the connection is clear. The company’s Single-Family Rent Index, which analyzes single-family rent price changes nationally and across major metropolitan areas, shows rent growth in June was the highest since at least 2005, an annual gain of 7.5 percent. The increase in June 2020 was 1.4 percent. The company examines the path of single-family rents across four price tiers, and in each, the growth exceeded pre-pandemic rates for the third straight month. In the lower-priced tier of homes, those that rent for up to 75 percent of the regional median, rents increased 5.3 percent in June compared to 2.3 percent a year earlier. The lower-middle tier, with rents from 75 to 100 percent of the median, saw an annual increase of 6.4 percent against only 1.5 percent in June 2020. Higher-middle priced rents, those in the 100 to 125 percent bracket, were up 7.1 percent, up from 1.5 percent the prior June. In the higher-priced tier, those single-families with rents more than 125 percent of the median, rents jumped 9.6 percent. The gain in June 2020 was 1.2 percent.

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MBS Day Ahead: Fun-Size Sell-Off Despite Weaker Data

The Retail Sales report is generally considered to be in the upper echelon of economic reports when it comes to bond market impact.  As such, it’s somewhat surprising to see bonds reacting negatively to a weaker-than-expected number.  But traders have their reasons.  These include a few bigger trades from bigger firms who were expecting an even weaker result in the data.  In turn, those trades provided leadership for more impressionable market participants.  They also helped yields crest the 1.25% technical level, thus resulting in some additional upward…

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What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean?

What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean? | Simplifying The Market

Whether or not you’ve been following the real estate industry lately, there’s a good chance you’ve heard we’re in a serious sellers’ market. But what does that really mean? And why are conditions today so good for people who want to list their house?

It starts with the number of houses available for sale. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Today, we have a 2.6-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. Historically, a 6-month supply is necessary for a ‘normal’ or ‘neutral’ market in which there are enough homes available for active buyers (see graph below):What Does Being in a Sellers’ Market Mean? | Simplifying The MarketWhen the supply of houses for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which leads to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer. As this happens, home prices rise, and sellers are in the best position to negotiate deals that meet their ideal terms.

Right now, there are many buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. Low mortgage rates and the ongoing rise in remote work have prompted buyers to think differently about where they live – and they’re taking action. If you put your house on the market while supply is still low, it will likely get a lot of attention from competitive buyers.

Bottom Line

Today’s ultimate sellers’ market holds great opportunities for homeowners ready to make a move. Listing your house now will maximize your exposure to serious buyers who will actively compete against each other to purchase it. Let’s connect to discuss how to jumpstart the selling process.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters Keeping Current Matters

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MBS RECAP: Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.

Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.

With a strong move last Friday, the bond market was able to end the week at slightly stronger levels than those seen at the end of the previous week.  This is more readily seen on the Treasury side of the market where yields were under 1.26% at the 3pm CME close versus roughly 1.30 on Friday afternoon.  MBS underperformed, ultimately returning to ‘unchanged’ levels in the 4pm hour even as Treasuries…

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MBS Week Ahead: Still Anyone’s Game as Covid Concerns Continue

Just when you thought rates were bouncing higher after hitting 6 month lows, the new week begins with bonds re-staking a claim to the recent, stronger range in July/Aug. 10yr yields are back in the 1.2’s, and MBS are at the best levels in more than a week.

Most everyone is tired of pandemic-related news, but it continues to be the key source of motivation for the economy and the bond market whether directly or indirectly.  The Fed’s rate-friendly policy stance is another manifestation of covid’s economic impacts.  And just when the Fed is finally getting close to dialing back…

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A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers

A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The Market

When you hear the phrase home price appreciation, what does it mean to you? Through context clues alone, chances are you know it has to do with rising home prices. And as a seller, you know rising home prices are good news for your potential sale. But let’s look past the dollar signs and dive deeper into the concept. To truly understand home price appreciation, you need to know how it works and why it matters to you.

Investopedia defines appreciation like this:

Appreciation, in general terms, is an increase in the value of an asset over time. The increase can occur for a number of reasons, including increased demand or weakening supply, or as a result of changes in inflation or interest rates. This is the opposite of depreciation, which is a decrease in value over time.” 

When we consider this definition and how it applies to real estate, a few words stick out: supply and demand. In today’s real estate market, we’re experiencing high buyer demand and very few sellers listing their homes for sale (see maps below):A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The MarketNo matter the industry, anytime there’s more demand than supply, prices naturally rise. It happens because buyers are willing to pay more to secure the scarce product or service they’re looking for. That’s exactly what’s happening in today’s real estate market. Buyers are competing with one another to purchase a home, leading to bidding wars that drive prices up. For sellers, the rising prices mean that opportunity is knocking.

According to Quicken Loans, the national average home price appreciation rate is between 3-5% in a typical year. Today, home prices are appreciating well beyond the norm thanks to high demand. Here are the latest expert projections on the rate of home price appreciation for this year (see chart below):A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The Market

Compared to the normal pace of 3-5% appreciation per year, the current average forecast of nearly 11.5% is significant.

For sellers, this means that with the current rise in prices, your house may be worth more than you realize. That price appreciation helps give your equity a boost. Equity is the difference between what you owe on the home and its market value based on factors like price appreciation. It works like this (see chart below):A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The MarketYou can use your built-up equity to power a move into your dream home, or you can put it toward life-changing goals like funding an education or opening a business.

But don’t wait. While price appreciation is strong now, those same experts say it’ll start to appreciate at a more normalized pace next year. If you list your house sooner rather than later, you’ll be in a better position to capitalize on the higher-than-average home price appreciation we’re seeing today.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling your house, there really is no time like the present. Let’s connect so you can get an expert market analysis of your home and its potential.

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