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Tag: #mortgagerates #mortgagenews # mortgage

Construction Spending: Residential is Only Game in Town

The U.S. Census Bureau says July’s expenditures on all types of construction was at a seasonally adjusted rate of $1.569 trillion compared to $1.563 trillion in June. This is an increase of 0.3 percent and 9.0 percent higher than expenditures in July 2020.

On a non-adjusted basis, total spending for the month was $144.046 billion, up from $141.545 billion the previous month. For the year-to-date (YTD), spending has totaled $883.208 billion, a 6.2 percent increase over spending in the first seven months of 2020.

With the exception of residential, spending in every construction category is down YTD. The biggest deficits are in spending on office construction and public safety. Both are just over 30 percent below their levels during the same period last year.

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HUD Unveils Multi-Agency Affordable Housing Plans

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has announced a series of actions aimed at assisting in the Biden Administrations goal of creating, preserving, and selling about 100,000 affordable houses over the next three years. HUD Secretary Marcia L. Fudge said, “These actions will expand access to critical capital for state Housing Finance Agencies, empower local communities to build more affordable housing using the historic investments contained in the American Rescue Plan, and advance equitable housing policies such as inclusionary zoning practices.” The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the following statement from its president and CEO Bob Broeksmit in support of the initiatives. “MBA strongly supports the administration’s efforts to increase the housing supply by encouraging the construction and rehabilitation of affordable apartments and homes for renters and first-time buyers.

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Just a Pre-NFP Place-Holder, But Lead-Offs Can Happen

Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report–much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates.  They’re typically fairly boring with movement that tends to be easily eclipsed by the NFP reaction in the following day, but occasionally we see these “place-holder” Thursdays turn into “lead-off” Thursdays. 

In other words, the bond market may have an underlying positional bias such that yields are 100% guaranteed to be at certain levels by Friday afternoon regardless of the NFP result, based solely on the trades that traders have already decided to make before the holiday weekend.  …

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Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher

Much like yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher, depending on the lender.  And once again, the differences in pricing strategies depend on timing in conjunction with yesterday’s pricing decisions.  

Lenders who reacted to yesterday afternoon’s bond market losses by raising rates were able to offer flat to slightly lower rates today.  Every other lender was either flat to slightly higher.

As is often the case, we’re talking about incredibly small movements in the bigger picture (because mortgage rates don’t reliably move enough to be worth measuring in day-over-day terms).  Prospective borrowers are likely to see the exact same rate quotes as yesterday.  The only differences would be modestly higher or lower upfront costs.

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration

Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration

Today’s ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit.  If there was one reason that bonds were able to move back into positive territory after overnight weakness, that was it.  The gains didn’t last long thanks to a combination of EU bond market weakness and general tradeflows at the NYSE open.  In fairness, the gains returned by the end of the day, but just barely.  The takeaway in the bigger picture…

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Freddie Mac’s Purchase Volumes Eroded in July

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 8.4 percent in July compared to a 12.9 percent gain in June.  The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $3.033 trillion compared to $3.021 trillion the prior month and $2.518 trillion a year earlier. Purchases and Issuances totaled $85.899 billion, and Sales were ($1.110) billion. The June numbers were $92.609 billion, and ($1.369) billion, respectively. Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $40.5 billion in July compared to $50.9 billion in June, representing a 50 percent share of total single-family mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances, down from 59 percent the previous month.

 

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Decline in Refis Pulls Mortgage Application Volume Lower

Mortgage application volume declined again last week, dragged down by flagging refinance activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, decreased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index was down by 3 percent.  The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 66.8 percent of total applications from 67.3 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 1 percent on the prior week but fell 2 percent on an unadjusted basis. It was 16 percent lower than the same week in 2020.  

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting the ADP vs NFP Correlation

The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government’s non-farm payroll number.  Assessing its efficacy was a tall order before covid and has been a relatively foolish endeavor since then.  So let’s get foolish (relatively)!  

Warning: the following charts are pretty hard to follow.  I haven’t conceived a better way to present the data post-covid, so the y-axis has been chopped off in most cases where huge covid-related numbers would have otherwise crushed the rest of the data series down to a flat line. 

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Mortgage Rates Drift Up From Recent Lows

Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, depending on the lender.  The differences in pricing strategies stem from the timing of changes in the bond market. 

Mortgage lenders set their rates based on the prices of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which change constantly throughout the day.  Despite those changes, there’s often enough stability for lenders to “set it and forget it.”  On days where MBS move more than normal, lenders can change their mortgage rate offerings in the middle of the day.

In today’s case, those changes were just getting to be too big to overlook right at the end of the trading day.  As such, only a handful of lenders opted to make any changes and even then, those changes were fairly small.

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MBS RECAP: Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears

Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears

Bonds improved after weaker economic data this morning.  Traders keyed in on internal components of the Chicago PMI report and concluded some labor market weakness could spill over to the week’s forthcoming employment reports.  But hawkishness from the European Central Bank pushed bonds back into weaker territory.  All of the above takes place inside the same sideways range that’s been intact for more than 3…

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