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MBS RECAP: Sideways Vibes Won’t Give Up Just Yet

Sideways Vibes Won’t Give Up Just Yet

Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower boundary of the prevailing consolidation range.  This type of breakout is a positive sign, generally, but it requires confirmation from the following day of trading (i.e. today).  Earlier today, it looked like confirmation was in the cards, but things went south heading into the close of the European session.  Yields jumped modestly higher, breaking above …

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Fidelity Home Group | Mortgage News | Mortgage Rates

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Foreclosure Rate Lowest in Over Two Decades

Today there are 400,000 homeowners in their final month of forbearance and another 1.2 million still in the program as it winds down, thus, it is probably way too early to conclude that the nation has a ducked a pandemic foreclosure bullet, However, the CoreLogic report on June’s loan performance suggests we might just pull it off. The company says the U.S. foreclosure rate in June was the lowest in over two decades. Not a surprise as the national moratorium on bank repossessions was in force until the end of July. However, other metrics in the report indicate that homeowners may emerge from the pandemic financially damaged but with homeownership largely intact.

 

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FHFA Suspends Second Home, Investment Loan Limits

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced late Tuesday that they were suspending some of the provisions that had been added to the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) on last January. The PSPA is the legal agreement between Treasury and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac governing the terms of the line of credit given to the GSEs in 2008 when they were put into conservatorship. FHFA acting director Sandra L. Thompson said, “This suspension will provide FHFA time to review the extent to which these requirements are redundant or inconsistent with existing FHFA standards, policies, and directives that mandate sustainable lending standards.”

 

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Purchase Applications Spring Back to April Level

The traditional end of summer was accompanied by a tiny boost in the volume of mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.3 percent during the week ended September 10 on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The index included an additional adjustment to account for the shortened week following the Labor Day weekend. The Index dropped 10 percent on an unadjusted basis. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 9 percent although it was 5 percent lower than the previous week on an unadjusted basis and was 12 percent behind the same week one year ago.

 

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Trying to Confirm Range Breakout

Yesterday’s most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka “pennant,” to use a technical term).  We might have hesitated to read anything into this had it not been for elevated volume and the fact that it was data-driven (Consumer Price Index).  We still might hesitate to read too much into it considering next week’s Fed announcement stands the best chance of setting the tone in the medium term, but for now, it’s fair to consider whether we’re seeing evidence that bonds can maintain more of a sideways range as opposed …

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2021’s Big Bad Mortgage Fee Hikes Have Been Removed! (Sort Of…)

Earlier this year, the FHFA and Treasury amended Treasury’s preferred stock repurchase agreements (PSPAs) to put limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (collectively, the GSEs).  These limits resulted in widespread fee increases for several categories of mortgages with investment properties and 2nd homes taking the heaviest damage.  Here’s a quick list of our previous coverage:

Initial coverage:
Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes
Big Hit to Second Home and Investment Mortgages

Criticism:
UI Urges Abandoning New Fannie/Freddie Amendments

Fallout:
Calabria…

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off

Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week’s Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one that could have meaningfully impacted the Fed’s decision-making process.  By coming in tamer than expected (and with several notable sectors such as used autos being down 1.5%), today’s result effectively tells the Fed it can take next week off.  Had today’s…

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Mortgage Rates Falling Back in Line With Best Recent Levels

Mortgage rates started the day modestly lower, but many lenders ended up offering mid-day improvements in response to market conditions.

When it comes to rates, the bond market sets the tone.  Bonds can move for a variety of reasons, but economic data is one of the quintessential inputs.  If the incoming data suggests a hotter economy or higher inflation, rates tend to rise.   The opposite is also true (weaker data = lower rates) as was the case today.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for the month of August today. 

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MBS Day Ahead: Tamer Inflation Makes Next Week’s Fed Less Scary

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week’s Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one that could have meaningfully impacted the Fed’s decision-making process.  Granted, that would have taken a shockingly big number, but by coming in tamer than expected, today’s result removes any doubts.  

Stocks and bonds did what stocks and bonds normally do when they receive an update that affects the Fed’s tapering outlook.  The same sorts of trades can be seen after the jobs report 2 weeks ago, and Powell’s…

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MBS RECAP: Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger

Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger

Treasuries have experienced more of the volatility in the bond market than MBS recently.  That makes sense given last week’s auction cycle and the ongoing glut of corporate bond issuance.  Volume and volatility were both minimal today as yields casually bumped the bottom of the consolidation range and coasted sideways for the rest of the day.  There are a few chances to see some data-inspired market…

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