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Rate Reckoning Draws Closer

Rates are dictated by the bond market and bonds are flashing a warning sign about volatility on the horizon. In other words, rates look like they’re ready to make a bigger move in the near future, for better or worse.

This isn’t readily apparent at first glance–especially when it comes to mortgage rates (which are still very close to all-time lows).  Even when we look at a rate benchmark like 10yr Treasury yields, it seems that volatility has died down recently. 

But the absence of volatility is actually the problem.  Rates had been moving decisively higher early in the year as vaccines and fiscal stimulus fueled hopes of a quicker economic recovery.  More recently, political gridlock and the delta-driven surge in covid cases took 10yr yields back in the other direction. 

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