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Mortgage Rates Catch a Break, But Will It Last?

By now, it’s no mystery that mortgage rates are significantly higher than they were last week.  The bigger mystery had to do with what comes next.  In some ways, the recent jump in rates could be viewed as a warning sign about more trouble ahead.  At the very least, it proved that the market was willing to react to various inputs in logical ways.  Last week’s chief example was the strong jobs report which did more than anything to accelerate the move higher in rates.

Through a different lens, we could simply say the market was reacting to the inputs that were available at the time, and that it will continue to do so. That’s a fairly vague assertion, so let’s clarify.  

The key inputs are interdependent to some extent.  It’s very easy to pin rate momentum on changes in bond buying policies from the Federal Reserve.  But the Fed’s decisions on that front will depend on a combination of economic data, inflation expectations, and risks to the outlook.

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