MBS Day Ahead: Starting on The Back Foot After Stronger Retail Sales

Bonds are starting the day on the back foot as Retail Sales rose 0.7% despite a median forecast of -0.8.  The Philly Fed numbers also surged past 18.8 forecasts to the tune of 30.7–decisive victories for economic data on both fronts.  Bonds are reacting logically with a move to the weakest levels of the day, but it’s pretty orderly so far.  Ideally, it should be challenging for selling pressure to get too excessive as traders keep powder dry for next week’s Fed.

From a technical standpoint, this weakness adds emphasis to yesterday’s conclusion.  Simply put, bonds…